About Winning at the Track
The
Race Card
Handicapping with Winning at the Track begins at the
Race Card. The user simply uploads a Bloodstock
DRF file to the program’s Home Page. After that,
everything becomes automatic. At the Race Card, WATT
users have several options that make navigating this Performance Method (PM) software
very easy.
From this point there are five auxiliary sections: 1) Three
Graphics screens; 2) The Pace Analyst; 3) The
Best-4 Summary screen; 4) The Key Horse Statistics screen,
and 5)The Conditions screen, located in the lower left corner.
The WATT internal screens can be accessed
using the drop-down located on the right. The five internal
screens include the History
Worksheet, the Ability Factor, the
Early Speed, the
Pure Speed, and the Late Speed screens.
The drop-down also features the ability to
note the Win/Place/Show horses once the race is complete.
The Race Card header identifies two
Pacesetters and two Contenders, calculated
by formulas that have been reasonably successful for WATT users over the years.
However, they are merely suggestions.
Users are still encouraged to do independent handicapping.
History Worksheet
Each horse’s past performance (pp) lines are displayed on the History Worksheet. There are as many as ten pp lines for each horse.
In the early days of WATT, these were the numbers typed manually into
the program. Today, everything is automatically transferred
from Bloodstock’s single DRF data file. The Speed
Rating shown is the horse’s performance relative to that track’s
record, before any adjustments.
On the History Worksheet users can delete
(or include) individual pp lines as well as scratch (or return) any horse at any
time. By simply checking the appropriate line box, then clicking "Update,"
or using the "Scratch" (or "Unscratch") button, horses can be removed from, or returned
to the race. As always, WATT handicappers are in total control of the numbers
being read by the program. However, modifications are not needed frequently.
For transparency, the WATT program offers
a separate screen for each of handicapping factor. Users
can page up or down between the races or individual screens with great ease. Also, convenient shortcuts are available.
Whenever a horse’s most
recent race is 45 days ago, or longer, the last date appears in red.
Ability Factor
The Ability Factor measures the horse's speed from the gate the the wire in its
three most recent races, adjusted by weather conditions and, to a lesser degree,
by the quality of horses at those racetracks. In effect, the Ability Factor
is a good measure of recent "form."
Of the four primary ratings, the Ability Factor is the only one restricted to the
last three outings. Every once in a while the user is
faced with a misleading pp line. Perhaps the horse fell
in one of its last three races, or maybe the distance is totally inappropriate for
the current race, or perhaps the surface might produce a misleading number. In such cases, the handicapper can go to the History
Worksheet and remove that line.
Pure Speed
The Pure
Speed rating measures the horse’s fastest race and it is greatly influenced
by the weather and racing surface. A horse’s best performance almost
always occurs under ideal conditions, which typically happens once or twice within
its past ten races.
Early Speed
Early Speed measures the horse’s ability
to run the early portions of the race. Of all the factors,
this is the least accurate and it has the lowest weighting within the overall PM
Rating, but when it is combined with the other factors, WATT users have a very powerful
handicapping tool. The best Early Speed performances
usually occur under ideal weather conditions.
Late Speed
Each race can be divided into sections (“calls”)
and the talents of each horse are given ratings at the various points.
At the second call point, for example, a typical race is almost 70% complete. The Late Speed calculation measures the horse’s
ability to run to the second call point as well as the last portion of that race.
The Late Speed factor was created in the
early 1970s and first introduced in the original program in 1985.
Of all the WATT factors, it is the most accurate and the most useful. It is also the largest contributor to the overall PM
Rating. The Pole Speed and the
Last Quarter calculations are the principal components of this
unique and proprietary formula.
The Pole Speed is defined as the rating for
that horse’s performance up to the second call point.
The Last Quarter is the horse’s rating for the final portion of that
particular race – i.e., between the second call point and the finish line. The Pole Speed of any horse leading at the second call
is referred to as the pace of the race.
The Best-4
Summary
The four major factors found on the Race
Card together comprise the PM Rating. The highest PM
Ratings in each contest appear on the Best-4 Summary screen.
Once in a while a “+” sign denotes a talent gap of 60 points
or more, which is also visible on the first Graphics chart.
As most WATT handicappers have known for years, a "key horse" (one likely to finish
in the exacta) will be found most of the time among the top three listed for that
race.
The Pace
Analyst
Each horse’s best and 2nd
best Late Speed ratings are ranked and displayed in the right columns of The Pace
Analyst, along with their relevant Pole Speed and Last Quarter numbers.
Also, depending on the distance of today’s race, the best sprints (or
routes) are ranked in the lower right column. As most
knowledgeable racing fans know, at higher quality tracks, a mile race can be regarded
as either a sprint or a route.
The Pole Speeds from the horses’ best
and 2nd best Late Speed numbers are ranked and listed in the columns
on the left.
The column in the lower left corner displays
the Form calculations for the top PM-rated horses in the contest.
In this case, the term "form" defines the horse’s performance during
the last portion of its most recent race.
In the lower right corner, there is a convenient
shortcut between The Pace Analyst and the first Graphic screen.
Graphics
In this section there are three graphics
bar charts. Screen one displays each horse’s current
PM Rating as well as the 2nd Best PM Rating (recalculated with the best
race removed). The second bar chart presents the three
highest Late Speed ratings averaged. Finally, the third
graphic displays the three most recent Late Speed races, left to right, for each
horse. A comparison of the second and third charts could
be another indication of current form.
When handicapping with the Graphics screens,
users are advised to take full advantage of the direct link to the Pace Analyst.
The Risk Profile gauge located on
the first chart typically indicates the difficulty of the handicap and the likelihood
of finding a reliable key horse. Also, too many horses
with similar PM Ratings suggest a more contentious contest and perhaps a greater
betting risk. The gauge offers a broad perspective and
should be regarded as merely a supplement to thoughtful handicapping.
Key Horse
Statistics
This screen, still under construction, features
various, interesting “class” statistics for each horse.
However, these calculations are never included in the PM Rating, which only
measures the relative speed/pace capabilities of all the horses in the contest.
Conditions
Located in the lower left corner of the Race
Card is basic information from the Trainers’ Condition Book.
Notes
Immediately after the name of each horse
is a special note - two numbers separated by a slash. The first number is
the horse's best-recorded Pole Speed (distance-adjusted). The second is a
measure of the horse's "Up Close" performance during its two most recent races.